It’s been a rough start to the week (or an exciting start, depending on your perspective) as a result of reescalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. On Sunday, President Trump stated that tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports would increase from 10% to 25%, and that another $325 billion in goods could fall under the 25% tariff “shortly.”
Article Category: Corrections
As earnings season chugs along it’s starting to look like analysts may have tempered their expectations a bit too much during the 4th quarter, which is typical. As you can see in the chart below, actual earnings (blue bars) have a steady habit of coming in above estimates (gray bars).
Amidst the carnage in the markets I hope you all are enjoying a wonderful holiday season. Today's note will be a bit shorter than normal as I write from beneath the Giant Sequoia trees in Yosemite National Park.
We know there are a variety of uncertainty-inducing events hanging over the market, and that, combined with thinly traded holiday markets, has made for a rather unnerving end to the year. But things are not as bad as they may seem.
This week I thought we’d mix it up a bit. Instead of me pouring over the data and giving you my opinion, I thought I’d provide you with a large subset of the data and get your take. Of course, don’t feel obligated to reply, as this exercise should (at least in theory) simply reinforce the perspective I shared last week.
I’ve been sitting here parsing through all kinds of economic data trying to make the case for a bear market, and I’ll be honest – it’s tough. There just aren’t many data points that portend a rolling over of the business cycle, or primary trend.
There are of course a few, such as the declines in housing starts and building permits (shown below), but other than that, most leading indicators remain in firm uptrends (the S&P 500 being the notable exception).