Article Category: Debt

Bond Yields and the Fed’s New Playbook

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We’ve been hyper-focused on the equity market over the past few months so I thought we’d expand our horizons today and look at a few other markets, particularly the bond market. This discussion should dovetail nicely with recent central bank comments suggesting an alteration of their inflation policy framework – something that could have large consequences down road.

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Posted in: Bonds Debt Federal Reserve Inflation Interest Rates Volatility Yield Curve

Breaking Down the U.S. Economy

In last week's article I elaborated on why it's important to allow the economic backdrop to guide us when price action becomes erratic. Today, I thought we would take a short tour of the economy to see how some of the more important elements are trending.

As you're well aware, GDP for the second quarter came in at 4.2%. That represents an uptick from the growth rates we saw over the last couple of years, and is the fastest annualized rate of growth since 2014.

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Posted in: Debt Economy Inflation Recessions

Global Growth Cues Abound

Sometimes stock market rallies can be so powerful that you just have to grab ahold of something sturdy and hang on. Every once in a while, the upward surge can be so strong that it feels as though it's fake - too much wealth being created in too short a time, inevitably destined to evaporate.

The last 12 months have felt that way. With the major averages up anywhere from 19-26%, many investors are logging in to see account balances that have never been this high.

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Posted in: Debt Economy Inflation

Binary Event Conflicts Don’t Sink Stock Markets, But This Could

I was originally going to publish the latest article in our option series today, wrapping up our discussion on getting paid to buy stocks, but the market reaction to North Korea seems more pressing, so we'll discuss that instead.

When most people think about potential events that could derail financial markets quickly, war seems to be near the top of that list. But counterintuitively, the prospect of war is not necessarily bad for stocks. In order to appreciate this, we need to take a look at how some prior conflicts have unfolded.

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Posted in: Debt Economy Gold Oil Volatility

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