It’s hard to believe, but our current economic expansion is nearly 10 years old, and will soon become the longest economic expansion on record. However, it has also been the weakest of the 11 expansions that have taken place since 1949. Is this a coincidence?
Article Category: Earnings
Markets are rebounding today after yesterday’s precipitous fall, in which the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials both experienced their worst day in four months. But make no mistake – the short-term trend remains down.
It’s been a busy week so let’s jump right in. We’ll begin today with a brief look at where markets stand, get caught up to speed on the earnings front, and then examine recent trends in the latest economic data.
As earnings season chugs along it’s starting to look like analysts may have tempered their expectations a bit too much during the 4th quarter, which is typical. As you can see in the chart below, actual earnings (blue bars) have a steady habit of coming in above estimates (gray bars).
Over the weekend, our long-in-the-tooth bull market supposedly turned 10 years old. The reason I say supposedly, is because at least according to Dow Theory, we’re technically in a bear market. In addition, should the S&P 500 fail to reach new highs and instead fall below its December 24th low, the bull run could conceivably have ended back on September 20th.