The fickle and herd-like nature of the financial markets is on clear display right now, as conversations about the yield curve again take center stage. Last week, the 10-year note yield momentarily dipped below that of the 2-year yield (it did not close below that mark) and this has set off a frenzy of commentary that in my opinion, is completely misplaced.
Article Category: Gold
Interest rates have been the primary focus of investors lately, and for good reason. A glance at the chart of the 10-year Treasury note yield below shows that while rates have been steadily declining for nearly a year, that move accelerated sharply during the last two weeks.
In last week’s commentary I mentioned that the Treasury does a biannual review on the currency practices of foreign governments. In five such reviews under the Trump administration, the Treasury department has declined to label China as a currency manipulator. That all changed yesterday.
The International Monetary Fund just released their quarterly update to the World Economic Outlook, and now projects real global economic growth to slow to 3.2% this year (from 3.6% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2017). Interestingly, the main downgrades in growth were concentrated in emerging market economies, including India, Russia, Mexico and Brazil.
We’re going to mix things up this week and begin our discussion with gold, which has finally broken out to the upside from a multi-year consolidation pattern. As you can see in the weekly chart below, gold has climbed above long-term resistance near 1375, and completed a bullish breakout of its ascending triangle pattern.