Article Category: Gold

Matt’s Market Insights

It's another risk-off day in the markets. Investors are locking in equity profits and moving towards safe havens such as US Treasuries. The worry continues to be about oil, which dropped below the $60 mark yesterday for the first time in over five years. The selling in oil is continuing today, and it is coupled with further indications of weak demand.

Not too many investors are afforded the luxury of watching the markets ebb and flow throughout each trading day. This luxury can provide some unique insight, as you begin to see investor reactions on a real time basis and therefore are allowed a clearer window into what is driving their behavior.


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Posted in: Economy Gold Momentum Oil Volatility

Matt’s Market Insights

The remarkable rally from the mid-October lows has finally hit some turbulence. During that time the S&P rallied over 11% in less than two months, so it's not outlandish for investors to do a little profit taking. We're also seeing another leg down in oil prices, some profit taking on the US Dollar trade, and weakness in overseas markets.

To begin, here's a quick daily chart of the Industrials. We've marched so far into uncharted territory that our first level of major support is near 17,250 - 17,280, about 400 points lower than we're currently trading. Notice in the chart that support at this level comes from a number of factors. That area represents the prior highs in the Industrials (before our last correction), the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and where the 50-day moving average is likely to be in the next few days. From a technical perspective this isa strong floor of support.


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Posted in: Corrections Federal Reserve Gold Inflation Interest Rates

Matt’s Market Insights

Last month in my November 10th remarks I detailed how the Bureau of Labor Statistics tweaks the raw hiring data in the monthly nonfarm payrolls report to arrive at the headline figure, which is released on the first Friday of each month.

To recap briefly, the BLS employs a statistical process to smooth the data based on seasonal fluctuations. Last month we saw record job creation (raw data) with 1.06 million jobs created in October. During the smoothing process, the adjustment factor that was used was the largest ever, reducing the headline jobs creation figure to 214,000. (For more detail on why the BLS does this and its effects, go back and read prior remarks.)


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Posted in: Bonds Earnings Federal Reserve Gold Inflation Oil

Matt’s Market Insights

It's a sleepy day in the markets as everyone prepares for the Thanksgiving holiday. Equity markets are barely fluctuating and remain mostly unchanged. If things remain calm through the end of the day, we'll be able to feast tomorrow with the satisfaction that markets are at or near all-time highs. Let's take a quick look at the major averages and then we'll touch on the litany of economic data points released this week.


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Posted in: Corrections Federal Reserve Gold Inflation Interest Rates

Matt’s Market Insights

Markets aregiving a warm reception to midterm election results, with the GOP securing control over both the House and Senate. This development is generally being seen as pro-business and as you can imagine, pro business is pro stocks.

Second term presidents losing control of congressis a familiarpattern. Reagan, Clinton, and Bush all found themselves in a similar situation, so maybe the Republican sweep shouldn't be all that surprising. At any rate, we'll see if the shake-up can open the door to any economically beneficial legislative changes.


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Posted in: Dollar Gold Inflation Momentum Oil

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