Article Category: Inflation

Neutral Near-Term, Bearish Longer-Term

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We saw a strong rally in global equity markets yesterday, and much of that move was predicated on an improving Chinese landscape. On Sunday, the official Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 50.5 (for March), signaling expansion for the first time in four months. The previous reading of 49.2 represented a three-year low.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Global Growth Inflation PMI Data Recessions Yield Curve

Resistance, Dow Theory, Gold and the Fed

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The first thing I want to mention today is that the S&P has finally cleared its overhead resistance at 2815. As you can see below, that price level turned the index back on five separate occasions. The fact that prices are holding above this mark is a good sign, as it suggests the selling pressure at this level has subsided.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Federal Reserve Inflation Market Breadth Recessions Sectors Yield Curve

Bond Yields and the Fed’s New Playbook

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We’ve been hyper-focused on the equity market over the past few months so I thought we’d expand our horizons today and look at a few other markets, particularly the bond market. This discussion should dovetail nicely with recent central bank comments suggesting an alteration of their inflation policy framework – something that could have large consequences down road.


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Posted in: Bonds Debt Federal Reserve Inflation Interest Rates Volatility Yield Curve

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