This week I thought we’d mix it up a bit. Instead of me pouring over the data and giving you my opinion, I thought I’d provide you with a large subset of the data and get your take. Of course, don’t feel obligated to reply, as this exercise should (at least in theory) simply reinforce the perspective I shared last week.
Article Category: Inflation
I was reading through some J.P. Morgan research over the weekend, and came across a number of key charts that I thought I would share with you today. But first, let's take another look at the stark contrast between U.S. and international stock performance that has developed this year.
While the U.S. economy and markets continue to chug along just fine, the rest of the world is having trouble keeping up. Like a bull market riding on narrow leadership, when only a handful of countries' stock markets are moving higher, it can be a sign of problems ahead.
In last week's article I elaborated on why it's important to allow the economic backdrop to guide us when price action becomes erratic. Today, I thought we would take a short tour of the economy to see how some of the more important elements are trending.
As you're well aware, GDP for the second quarter came in at 4.2%. That represents an uptick from the growth rates we saw over the last couple of years, and is the fastest annualized rate of growth since 2014.
The story of 2018 has been one of U.S. growth, but not necessarily global growth. While most major economies around the world are still expanding, they have been decelerating or holding steady, whereas the U.S. economy has been picking up steam.
As is typically the case, a stronger relative outlook for the U.S. has led investors to bid up the dollar, which is causing a reshuffling of the cards. Currencies always have a way of sharing and redistributing growth around the globe, and this time is no different.
Over the years, stock market enthusiasts have come up with at least a billion or so novel ways to forecast future performance. Some of the more well known indicators include the January Barometer, the Super Bowl indicator, and the old adage, "Sell in May and go away."
Most of these indicators lack statistical significance, implying that they're more or less coincidence, but it can still be fun to explore what they have to say. This is especially true when you're in the midst of a boring economic expansion where nearly every data set is pointing towards higher prices.