Article Category: Inflation

Bond Yields and the Fed’s New Playbook

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We’ve been hyper-focused on the equity market over the past few months so I thought we’d expand our horizons today and look at a few other markets, particularly the bond market. This discussion should dovetail nicely with recent central bank comments suggesting an alteration of their inflation policy framework – something that could have large consequences down road.


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Posted in: Bonds Debt Federal Reserve Inflation Interest Rates Volatility Yield Curve

Fed Helps Market Gain Traction

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I’ve been in the retest camp for some time now, expecting the market to plumb the lows from Christmas Eve, but the market has steadfastly moved higher. In part this is due to earnings coming in better than expected (and guidance not being as awful), but I also believe a lot of it has to do with the marked shift from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.


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Posted in: Federal Reserve Inflation Market Breadth Oil PMI Data

What’s Your Take?

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This week I thought we’d mix it up a bit. Instead of me pouring over the data and giving you my opinion, I thought I’d provide you with a large subset of the data and get your take. Of course, don’t feel obligated to reply, as this exercise should (at least in theory) simply reinforce the perspective I shared last week.


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Posted in: Corrections Economy Inflation Recessions

Strong 4th Quarter Ahead?

I was reading through some J.P. Morgan research over the weekend, and came across a number of key charts that I thought I would share with you today. But first, let's take another look at the stark contrast between U.S. and international stock performance that has developed this year.

While the U.S. economy and markets continue to chug along just fine, the rest of the world is having trouble keeping up. Like a bull market riding on narrow leadership, when only a handful of countries' stock markets are moving higher, it can be a sign of problems ahead.


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Posted in: Bonds Corrections Economy Inflation Interest Rates Taxes

Breaking Down the U.S. Economy

In last week's article I elaborated on why it's important to allow the economic backdrop to guide us when price action becomes erratic. Today, I thought we would take a short tour of the economy to see how some of the more important elements are trending.

As you're well aware, GDP for the second quarter came in at 4.2%. That represents an uptick from the growth rates we saw over the last couple of years, and is the fastest annualized rate of growth since 2014.


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Posted in: Debt Economy Inflation Recessions

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