Article Category: Inflation

Global Growth Cues Abound

Sometimes stock market rallies can be so powerful that you just have to grab ahold of something sturdy and hang on. Every once in a while, the upward surge can be so strong that it feels as though it's fake - too much wealth being created in too short a time, inevitably destined to evaporate.

The last 12 months have felt that way. With the major averages up anywhere from 19-26%, many investors are logging in to see account balances that have never been this high.


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Posted in: Debt Economy Inflation

Navigating Aberrant Data

We've seen some really great economic data lately, and we've seen some lousy data as well. Some of it suggests that we're in the middle of an incredibly strong expansion, while other data shows a sharp decline in key areas such as employment and corporate profits.

As you can probably guess, much of this aberrant data comes as a result of hurricanes Irma and Harvey, which wreaked havoc across the Southeast. Today we're going to examine some of this data in an attempt to gauge whether the U.S. economy remains on stable footing.


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Posted in: Dollar Earnings Economy Inflation Volatility

QT (Quantitative Tightening) on Deck this Week

The Federal Reserve is set to meet later this week, with the latest FOMC announcement coming on Wednesday. While no change is expected in rates, investors are expecting to learn more details about the Fed's plan to wind down their balance sheet.

Part of the reason no rate hike is expected is that inflation has been weak as of late. The chart below shows both headline and core (excluding food and energy) inflation, and as you can see, the recent trend has been toward disinflation.


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Posted in: Bonds Economy Federal Reserve Inflation Interest Rates

Where Did TINA Go?

A few years ago, TINA was everywhere ... she was the life of the party. Whenever people wondered why stocks kept rising, she'd show up and people would scream, TINA!

But I haven't heard anyone mention her recently ... did she take off? Or did she drink so much from the punch bowl that she's passed out, sleeping somewhere?

Of course I'm talking about TINA the acronym, not Tina your old drinking buddy. As in, There Is No Alternative ... to stocks.


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Posted in: Bonds Earnings Economy Inflation Interest Rates Volatility

Technical Damage

Most averages are creeping higher today, but the last couple of weeks of volatile price action has caused some significant damage to the charts. In particular, there are concerns developing in the S&P, the small-caps and the Transports.

Let's begin with the S&P.

Below you can see a daily chart of the S&P 500 showing the development of a possible head and shoulders top. The left shoulder and head have been completed, with this latest downswing taking prices back to the neckline, near 2420. The index has also fallen below its 50-day moving average, which is starting to roll over.


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Posted in: Dollar Earnings Inflation

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