Article Category: Market Breadth

Resistance, Dow Theory, Gold and the Fed

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The first thing I want to mention today is that the S&P has finally cleared its overhead resistance at 2815. As you can see below, that price level turned the index back on five separate occasions. The fact that prices are holding above this mark is a good sign, as it suggests the selling pressure at this level has subsided.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Federal Reserve Inflation Market Breadth Recessions Sectors Yield Curve

Restating the Case for a Rangebound Market

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Most investors, including myself, generally sit squarely within one of two camps: bullish or bearish. My research and observations over the years have left me with a rather simple premise on which to base this judgement. When the economy is expanding, remain firmly bullish, and when growth begins to slow and recession clouds gather, get bearish.


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Posted in: Dollar Earnings Economy Federal Reserve Interest Rates Market Breadth Yield Curve

Fed Helps Market Gain Traction

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I’ve been in the retest camp for some time now, expecting the market to plumb the lows from Christmas Eve, but the market has steadfastly moved higher. In part this is due to earnings coming in better than expected (and guidance not being as awful), but I also believe a lot of it has to do with the marked shift from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.


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Posted in: Federal Reserve Inflation Market Breadth Oil PMI Data

Dow Theory “Lines in the Sand” Have Been Drawn

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Let’s begin today’s note with a quick update on the S&P 500. Two weeks ago, on October 30th, I suggested that a possible short-term bottom was coming into view based on relative price action in the VIX and small-caps.

As it turns out, the October 29th bottom did hold, and the S&P subsequently rallied back up to where it began its second leg down (at approximately 2815). From there, we had three down days of increasing magnitude, followed by today’s attempt at a rally.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Emerging Markets Market Breadth Primary Trend Stocks

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