As you’ve noticed, the website is back up and running. My apologies for last week’s delay, our SSL certificate had expired and getting it renewed turned out to be a bit more complicated than expected. We’re all set now, so let’s dive right in and get caught up on the latest market action.
Article Category: PMI Data
It’s September, and guess what that means? New Tariffs! Woohoo!
What, you’re not excited about more tariffs? You don’t want to pay more for goods and see a further dampening effect on economic growth? You actually want the economy to keep growing? Well, too bad for you.
The main idea I want to talk about today is the notion that our economy will continue to expand (no recession) as long as consumer spending remains healthy and continues to grow. This is the primary case being made by those who are watching business spending deteriorate, but who don’t believe we’ll enter a recession.
In last week’s commentary I mentioned that the Treasury does a biannual review on the currency practices of foreign governments. In five such reviews under the Trump administration, the Treasury department has declined to label China as a currency manipulator. That all changed yesterday.
Jerome Powell’s testimony last week offered no pushback against rate-cut expectations, and if anything, actually stoked the fire. Bets of a 50 basis point cut, as opposed to 25, rose, indicating the market shifted to an even more dovish stance.