Article Category: Primary Trend

The Best Place to Hide

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I want to begin today with a look at ACWI - the All-Country World Index ETF, which you can see in the top panel below. This ETF tracks the MSCI benchmark and provides exposure to large and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets. Approximately 85% of investable global equities are included in this index.


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Posted in: Asset Allocation Dollar Dow Theory Global Growth PMI Data Primary Trend

The Global Growth Saga Continues

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Over the last few months we’ve talked a lot about the idea that it is global growth, as opposed to domestic growth, that is presenting the biggest challenges for financial markets. Unfortunately, that message remains relatively unchanged, and is creating a mixed picture for investors.

Let’s begin with a look at economic conditions abroad, and then we’ll circle back to some the not-so-bad developments here in the States.


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Posted in: Economy Global Growth PMI Data Primary Trend Recessions Volatility

It’s Retest Day

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I’ve been sitting here parsing through all kinds of economic data trying to make the case for a bear market, and I’ll be honest – it’s tough. There just aren’t many data points that portend a rolling over of the business cycle, or primary trend.

There are of course a few, such as the declines in housing starts and building permits (shown below), but other than that, most leading indicators remain in firm uptrends (the S&P 500 being the notable exception).


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Posted in: Corrections Economy Momentum Primary Trend Stocks

Dow Theory “Lines in the Sand” Have Been Drawn

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Let’s begin today’s note with a quick update on the S&P 500. Two weeks ago, on October 30th, I suggested that a possible short-term bottom was coming into view based on relative price action in the VIX and small-caps.

As it turns out, the October 29th bottom did hold, and the S&P subsequently rallied back up to where it began its second leg down (at approximately 2815). From there, we had three down days of increasing magnitude, followed by today’s attempt at a rally.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Emerging Markets Market Breadth Primary Trend Stocks

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