You probably saw the title of this article and assumed I was talking about the bull market, and that may be the case too, but it’s actually in reference to my weekly market analysis provided through Sigma Point Capital. Today will be the last article that goes out, at least for a while. I’m sure this comes as a big surprise, and you probably have many questions, so please allow me to explain.
Article Category: Psychology
It’s frankly astounding to me how much power the Federal Reserve holds over the psychology of market participants. One reassuring comment from Jay Powell can send the market 5% higher in a week, while an offhand comment, such as we saw in October, can throw the market into a severe correction.
I’ve used this analogy before, but on days like today, one can’t help but feel like investors are nothing more than Pavlov’s dogs, salivating for the inevitable treat they’ve been conditioned to expect. As for Pavlov, he is of course played by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, also known as the Wizard of Oz.
The final quarter of each year is often a seasonally strong period for stocks, but not so this year, as the market found itself in a seemingly endless freefall. This culminated with the final month of the year being the worse December since the Great Depression, a rather unnerving fact.
But is it possible there’s a silver lining to 2018 that could, in the long run, actually be a net positive? Using some mental gymnastics (which I’m quite good at), I think the answer may actually be yes.
By now most of you are probably aware that this is the last week that Dow Theory Letters will be published. If you haven't had a chance to read the message that was sent out this morning, you can read it here (link no longer active), on the announcements section of the website.
Since this is the last time that you'll hear from me via DTL, I thought I would take a moment to say some goodbyes, reminisce a bit, and let you know what I'll be up to in case you'd like to continue following my work.