You probably saw the title of this article and assumed I was talking about the bull market, and that may be the case too, but it’s actually in reference to my weekly market analysis provided through Sigma Point Capital. Today will be the last article that goes out, at least for a while. I’m sure this comes as a big surprise, and you probably have many questions, so please allow me to explain.
Article Category: Recessions
It’s September, and guess what that means? New Tariffs! Woohoo!
What, you’re not excited about more tariffs? You don’t want to pay more for goods and see a further dampening effect on economic growth? You actually want the economy to keep growing? Well, too bad for you.
The main idea I want to talk about today is the notion that our economy will continue to expand (no recession) as long as consumer spending remains healthy and continues to grow. This is the primary case being made by those who are watching business spending deteriorate, but who don’t believe we’ll enter a recession.
Interest rates have been the primary focus of investors lately, and for good reason. A glance at the chart of the 10-year Treasury note yield below shows that while rates have been steadily declining for nearly a year, that move accelerated sharply during the last two weeks.
The International Monetary Fund just released their quarterly update to the World Economic Outlook, and now projects real global economic growth to slow to 3.2% this year (from 3.6% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2017). Interestingly, the main downgrades in growth were concentrated in emerging market economies, including India, Russia, Mexico and Brazil.