The main idea I want to talk about today is the notion that our economy will continue to expand (no recession) as long as consumer spending remains healthy and continues to grow. This is the primary case being made by those who are watching business spending deteriorate, but who don’t believe we’ll enter a recession.
Article Category: Volatility
The financial markets have been telling a fragmented story ever since the beginning of 2019, but that appears to be changing. Over the past month, the messages coming from stock and bond markets have begun to coalesce in a manner that unfortunately, will likely leave a bearish taste in your mouth.
We’ve been hyper-focused on the equity market over the past few months so I thought we’d expand our horizons today and look at a few other markets, particularly the bond market. This discussion should dovetail nicely with recent central bank comments suggesting an alteration of their inflation policy framework – something that could have large consequences down road.
Over the last few months we’ve talked a lot about the idea that it is global growth, as opposed to domestic growth, that is presenting the biggest challenges for financial markets. Unfortunately, that message remains relatively unchanged, and is creating a mixed picture for investors.
Let’s begin with a look at economic conditions abroad, and then we’ll circle back to some the not-so-bad developments here in the States.
The final quarter of each year is often a seasonally strong period for stocks, but not so this year, as the market found itself in a seemingly endless freefall. This culminated with the final month of the year being the worse December since the Great Depression, a rather unnerving fact.
But is it possible there’s a silver lining to 2018 that could, in the long run, actually be a net positive? Using some mental gymnastics (which I’m quite good at), I think the answer may actually be yes.