Market Analysis

Neutral Near-Term, Bearish Longer-Term

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We saw a strong rally in global equity markets yesterday, and much of that move was predicated on an improving Chinese landscape. On Sunday, the official Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 50.5 (for March), signaling expansion for the first time in four months. The previous reading of 49.2 represented a three-year low.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Global Growth Inflation PMI Data Recessions Yield Curve

Resistance, Dow Theory, Gold and the Fed

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The first thing I want to mention today is that the S&P has finally cleared its overhead resistance at 2815. As you can see below, that price level turned the index back on five separate occasions. The fact that prices are holding above this mark is a good sign, as it suggests the selling pressure at this level has subsided.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Federal Reserve Inflation Market Breadth Recessions Sectors Yield Curve

The Bull Market Turns 10

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Over the weekend, our long-in-the-tooth bull market supposedly turned 10 years old. The reason I say supposedly, is because at least according to Dow Theory, we’re technically in a bear market. In addition, should the S&P 500 fail to reach new highs and instead fall below its December 24th low, the bull run could conceivably have ended back on September 20th.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Earnings Economy Federal Reserve Global Growth

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