Market Analysis

Bond Yields and the Fed’s New Playbook

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We’ve been hyper-focused on the equity market over the past few months so I thought we’d expand our horizons today and look at a few other markets, particularly the bond market. This discussion should dovetail nicely with recent central bank comments suggesting an alteration of their inflation policy framework – something that could have large consequences down road.


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Posted in: Bonds Debt Federal Reserve Inflation Interest Rates Volatility Yield Curve

Bullish Price Action, Lackluster Data

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When the market collapses as it did during December, it’s usually a function of ETF and futures driven selling. Rather than going through the process of selling individual stocks, larger investors use these baskets of securities to effectively sell everything at once. This is especially true when we’re talking about short-term, algorithmic style trading.


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Posted in: Commodities Economy Global Growth Oil Sectors

Restating the Case for a Rangebound Market

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Most investors, including myself, generally sit squarely within one of two camps: bullish or bearish. My research and observations over the years have left me with a rather simple premise on which to base this judgement. When the economy is expanding, remain firmly bullish, and when growth begins to slow and recession clouds gather, get bearish.


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Posted in: Dollar Earnings Economy Federal Reserve Interest Rates Market Breadth Yield Curve

The Best Place to Hide

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I want to begin today with a look at ACWI - the All-Country World Index ETF, which you can see in the top panel below. This ETF tracks the MSCI benchmark and provides exposure to large and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets. Approximately 85% of investable global equities are included in this index.


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Posted in: Asset Allocation Dollar Dow Theory Global Growth PMI Data Primary Trend

Fed Helps Market Gain Traction

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I’ve been in the retest camp for some time now, expecting the market to plumb the lows from Christmas Eve, but the market has steadfastly moved higher. In part this is due to earnings coming in better than expected (and guidance not being as awful), but I also believe a lot of it has to do with the marked shift from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.


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Posted in: Federal Reserve Inflation Market Breadth Oil PMI Data

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