Market Analysis

Resistance, Dow Theory, Gold and the Fed

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The first thing I want to mention today is that the S&P has finally cleared its overhead resistance at 2815. As you can see below, that price level turned the index back on five separate occasions. The fact that prices are holding above this mark is a good sign, as it suggests the selling pressure at this level has subsided.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Federal Reserve Inflation Market Breadth Recessions Sectors Yield Curve

The Bull Market Turns 10

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Over the weekend, our long-in-the-tooth bull market supposedly turned 10 years old. The reason I say supposedly, is because at least according to Dow Theory, we’re technically in a bear market. In addition, should the S&P 500 fail to reach new highs and instead fall below its December 24th low, the bull run could conceivably have ended back on September 20th.


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Posted in: Dow Theory Earnings Economy Federal Reserve Global Growth

Bond Yields and the Fed’s New Playbook

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We’ve been hyper-focused on the equity market over the past few months so I thought we’d expand our horizons today and look at a few other markets, particularly the bond market. This discussion should dovetail nicely with recent central bank comments suggesting an alteration of their inflation policy framework – something that could have large consequences down road.


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Posted in: Bonds Debt Federal Reserve Inflation Interest Rates Volatility Yield Curve

Bullish Price Action, Lackluster Data

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When the market collapses as it did during December, it’s usually a function of ETF and futures driven selling. Rather than going through the process of selling individual stocks, larger investors use these baskets of securities to effectively sell everything at once. This is especially true when we’re talking about short-term, algorithmic style trading.


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Posted in: Commodities Economy Global Growth Oil Sectors

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